A3 PolyTrade · Event research atlas

Event probabilities and market context

Why PolyTrade: study how participants price an event outcome, check the rules and compare your own scenario.

Browse markets How to read probabilities

Prediction market data is informational only and is not investment advice.

● Live spotlight

Original · EN

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Yes #15.5%
No #294.5%

Bars show displayed outcome prices. Prices are independent and may not add up to 100%.

Polymarket · Listed end date (API): Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Fetched from API: 2026-11-03 06:34:04 UTC

Current outcome prices

Current outcome prices
Outcome	Displayed price	24h
Yes #1	5.5%	No data
No #2	94.5%	—

24h: 24h change of the first outcome. Bars show displayed outcome prices. Prices are independent and may not add up to 100%.

Resolution checklist

01 →

Resolution source

No data

02 →

Original rules

No data

03 →

Deadline

Provided in API

04 →

Resolved result

No data

Market start (API)
No data
Listed end date (API)
Nov 4, 2026 UTCNot necessarily when the game ends or when the result is confirmed.
Resolution time
Not provided by the API — determined by the rules.
Resolution source
Loading rules…
Original rules
Loading rules…

Why rules matter (illustration): a market titled “Will X win?” may count only the official result at a set time and ignore a later appeal. Two similar titles can resolve differently.

Polymarket

Compare events

Loaded sample only. Price and change refer to the first listed outcome.

Browse markets

Compare events
Question	First outcome	Displayed price	24h	24h volume	Liquidity	Deadline
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	5.5%	No data	$5,092,116.83	$2,389,692.38	Nov 4, 2026 UTC	Details
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	94.5%	No data	$3,851,657.96	$5,498,860.58	Nov 4, 2026 UTC	Details
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	36.5%	+5.00 pp	$2,654,435.36	$1,015,124.24	Nov 3, 2026 UTC	Details
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	76.5%	+5.00 pp	$2,387,901.51	$2,240,184.93	Nov 4, 2026 UTC	Details
Dota 2: potn9ki vs HellNight- (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group C	potn9ki	49.9%	+2.85 pp	$1,654,658.07	$69,987.67	Nov 2, 2026 UTC	Details
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.1%	+0.10 pp	$1,638,992.49	$326,300.95	Nov 8, 2028 UTC	Details
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?	Yes	0.3%	−0.05 pp	$1,382,425.57	$75,675.76	Nov 3, 2026 UTC	Details
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	25.5%	−1.00 pp	$1,354,037.31	$1,137,077.6	Nov 4, 2026 UTC	Details
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	5.5%	No data	$1,353,536.7	$3,816,137.45	Nov 4, 2026 UTC	Details
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	23.5%	−5.00 pp	$1,262,678.93	$999,852.36	Nov 4, 2026 UTC	Details
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	75.0%	−24.20 pp	$1,165,480.56	$104,220.25	Oct 31, 2026 UTC	Details
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	71.7%	−26.10 pp	$1,160,207.7	$66,024.31	Nov 3, 2026 UTC	Details

Probability landscape

↑ 24h volume · log scale

First outcome price

Original · EN 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes 5.5% · $5,092,116.83

Snapshot of the displayed markets at the last successful fetch: horizontal = first outcome price, vertical = 24h volume (log scale). Cross-sectional only — no history or trend is implied.

Scenarios

Your view vs market

Your assessment: 50%

Displayed price: 5.5%
Your assessment: 50%
Gap vs market price: +44.50 pp

Your percentage is your own assumption, not A3 AI confidence. The gap is not a profit forecast.

Worked example: market price 40%, your assessment 50% → gap +10 pp. It only shows that you disagree by 10 points; it guarantees nothing.

Comparison schematic · not to scale

Yes · Your assumption is above the displayed price

Scenario calculator

Amount (USDC)

Outcome: Yes
Displayed price: 5.5%
Estimated shares: 181.82
Estimated payout if outcome wins: $181.82

Estimates use the displayed price and a $1 payout per winning share. Not a live execution quote or guarantee. Fees, slippage, liquidity and resolution rules affect results. No order is sent.

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Where PolyTrade fits in A3

Main platform presenting digital-asset trading solutions and the personal account.

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Separate sites: PolyTrade does not share a login, wallet, watchlist or orders with them.

PolyTrade: Event-probability context from public Polymarket prices.
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Swap: Exchange app.

Research notes

How to read probabilities

01
Market price is a participant estimate, not A3 AI confidence. Prices are displayed independently without normalization to 100%; rounding and market quotes may produce different totals.
02
Change refers to the first outcome: Outcome #1. Values are percentage points, not relative percentages.
03
Price changes alone do not explain their cause. No verified news sources or publication times are attached here, so A3 does not attribute current moves to news.
04
Estimates use the displayed price and a $1 payout per winning share. Not a live execution quote or guarantee. Fees, slippage, liquidity and resolution rules affect results. No order is sent.